Odds in Pokemon

 

Part 4 Ė The Synergy of Energy

 

††††††††††† In my previous three parts, I neglected Energy cards, focusing on cards that you can only have a maximum of 4 of. This will be rectified in this fourth part of my ĎOdds in Pokemoní article, and in the next one the following week.

 

Energy in your Starting Hand

 

††††††††††† Here, we shall see what are the odds of drawing a certain number of Energy cards in your opening hand, depending, of course, on the number of Energy cards you have in your deck. This will give us an insight on how many Energy cards you should play in your deck.

 

††††††††††† Letís first present the following table:

 

Number of Energy cards in your deck

Probability of getting no Energy cards in your opening hand

Probability of getting one Energy card in your opening hand

Probability of getting two Energy cards in your opening hand

Probability of getting three Energy cards in your opening hand

Probability of getting 4 or more Energy cards in your opening hand

8

34.64%

42.17%

18.84%

3.93%

0.42%

9

29.98%

41.97%

21.90%

5.44%

0.72%

10

25.86%

41.15%

24.69%

7.16%

1.15%

11

22.24%

39.83%

27.16%

9.05%

1.72%

12

19.06%

38.13%

29.26%

11.08%

2.46%

13

16.28%

36.14%

30.98%

13.21%

3.38%

14

13.86%

33.95%

32.30%

15.38%

4.51%

15

11.75%

31.63%

33.22%

17.55%

5.85%

16

9.92%

29.24%

33.74%

19.68%

7.41%

17

8.34%

26.84%

33.90%

21.73%

9.19%

18

6.99%

24.45%

33.70%

23.65%

11.22%

19

5.82%

22.12%

33.18%

25.41%

13.47%

20

4.83%

19.88%

32.37%

26.98%

15.95%

21

3.98%

17.74%

31.31%

28.33%

18.64%

22

3.27%

15.73%

30.02%

29.43%

21.55%

23

2.67%

13.84%

28.56%

30.29%

24.65%

24

2.16%

12.10%

26.94%

30.87%

27.92%

25

1.74%

10.51%

25.22%

31.18%

31.35%

26

1.39%

9.05%

23.42%

31.22%

34.92%

27

1.11%

7.74%

21.57%

30.99%

38.59%

28

0.87%

6.57%

19.71%

30.50%

42.35%

29

0.68%

5.53%

17.86%

29.77%

46.16%

30

0.53%

4.61%

16.05%

28.81%

50.00%

 

††††††††††† Suppose you have, say, 14 Energy cards in your deck. Then the probability of getting no Energy cards in your starting hand is 13.86%, that of getting one is 33.95%, that of getting two is 32.30%, that of getting three is 15.38%, and that of getting more than 3 Energy cards is 4.51%. Note that these probabilities do not assume that you have at least one Basic Pokemon in your hand as well. Also, the highest probability for each row is in boldface.

 

Comments on the above table

 

††††††††††† Beginners usually tend to play a high number of Energy cards in their decks, usually more than 20. If you are in this category, then listen attentively to what Iím about to say.

 

††††††††††† If you look at the chart above, youíll notice that if you play more than 20 Energy cards in your deck, you have a big probability of getting more than 2 Energy cards in your opening hand. Getting more than 2 Energy cards in your opening hand is usually useless; the extra Energy cards are replacing more important cards in your opening hand such as Trainer cards. Remember that you get to attach only one Energy card per turn (usually), so you donít get to play your extra Energy cards until the third turn.

 

††††††††††† In most games, youíll want to get 1 or 2 Energy cards in your opening hand. 0 Energy cards are usually bad, because you donít get to attack the first turn with 0 Energies. For example, if you happen to get Lass, a Cleffa but no Energy, then you canít use the Lass/Eeeeeeek combo first turn, which just might make your opponent setup in his or her first turn.

 

††††††††††† From the chart above, the best number of Energy cards you can play in Unlimited is 13. This depends on the deck youíre playing, of course. In fact, the number of Energy cards in Unlimited decks usually range between 11 and 15, but for most decks, 13 is the best all-round number. When you play 13 Energy cards, you have 1 in 6 chance (about 16.7%) of getting 0 Energy in your opening hand and 1 in 6 chance (about 16.7%) of getting more than 2 Energies in your opening hand. In the other 4 in 6 games (around 66.6%), youíll get either one or two Energy cards. Note, however, that you have a slightly better chance of getting 1 Energy card than 2 Energy cards if you play 13 Energies in your deck. This is alright in fast Unlimited decks, but might not be alright in Modified, where your hand rarely gets shuffled in your deck or discarded. Therefore you might want to play more than 13 Energy cards in Modified, and indeed, this is what players usually do (again this depends on the deck youíre playing). However, do not play too many Energy cards, even in Modified. From the table above, 18 is the maximum number of Energy cards you can play in your Modified decks without getting more than 2 Energy in your opening hand too often.

 

Conclusion

 

††††††††††† As I said in the introduction, the subject of the next article will also be Energy cards, this time about getting them in your prizes, which should ring home the reason why you shouldnít play too many Energy cards in your deck.

††††††††††† Iím receiving a nice number of questions and comments about my articles via email and via AIM. Iím answering the emails as fast as I can, so sorry if I was a bit tardy in answering a few of the emails.

 

††††††††††† This article should be the fourth one out of six articles Iím planning. After I submit my sixth article, Iíll be open to just answer your odds-related questions. I have already received a few, but I think that my articles either have already answered their questions, or else will answer them. As usual, the email address to do this is xactcreations@yahoo.com. You can also AIM me (my nickname is xactxx) if you want to ask me something quickly or if you want to just chat with me about anything, but if you want an odds-related question answered, email is the preferred method.