Odds in Pokemon
Part 5 – The Synergy of Energy
(Continued)
As I said in the previous article, I will continue talking about Energy cards, this time about their odds of getting them among their Prize cards.
Energy in your Prize Cards
The following table contains the probabilities of getting a certain number of Energy cards among your Prize cards, depending on how many Energy cards you run in your deck:
Number of
Energy cards in your deck |
Probability of getting no Energy cards in your
Prizes |
Probability of getting one Energy card in your
Prizes |
Probability of getting two Energy cards in your
Prizes |
Probability of getting three Energy cards in your
Prizes |
Probability of getting 4 or more Energy cards in your
Prizes |
8 |
39.97% |
41.71% |
15.53% |
2.59% |
0.20% |
9 |
35.27% |
42.32% |
18.40% |
3.65% |
0.36% |
10 |
31.04% |
42.32% |
21.16% |
4.91% |
0.57% |
11 |
27.24% |
41.80% |
23.75% |
6.33% |
0.88% |
12 |
23.83% |
40.85% |
26.13% |
7.92% |
1.27% |
13 |
20.79% |
39.55% |
28.25% |
9.64% |
1.77% |
14 |
18.08% |
37.96% |
30.09% |
11.46% |
2.41% |
15 |
15.67% |
36.15% |
31.63% |
13.37% |
3.18% |
16 |
13.53% |
34.18% |
32.87% |
15.34% |
4.08% |
17 |
11.64% |
32.10% |
33.78% |
17.33% |
5.15% |
18 |
9.98% |
29.94% |
34.39% |
19.31% |
6.38% |
19 |
8.52% |
27.75% |
34.68% |
21.25% |
7.80% |
20 |
7.24% |
25.56% |
34.68% |
23.12% |
9.40% |
21 |
6.13% |
23.39% |
34.40% |
24.90% |
11.18% |
22 |
5.16% |
21.28% |
33.86% |
26.56% |
13.14% |
23 |
4.32% |
19.24% |
33.08% |
28.06% |
15.30% |
24 |
3.60% |
17.29% |
32.07% |
29.40% |
17.64% |
25 |
2.98% |
15.44% |
30.88% |
30.55% |
20.15% |
26 |
2.46% |
13.70% |
29.52% |
31.48% |
22.84% |
27 |
2.01% |
12.07% |
28.01% |
32.20% |
25.71% |
28 |
1.63% |
10.56% |
26.40% |
32.68% |
28.73% |
29 |
1.32% |
9.17% |
24.69% |
32.93% |
31.89% |
30 |
1.05% |
7.91% |
22.93% |
32.93% |
35.18% |
Suppose you have, say, 14 Energy cards in your deck. Then the probability of getting no Energy cards among your Prize cards is 18.08%, that of getting one is 37.96%, that of getting two is 30.09%, that of getting three is 11.46%, and that of getting more than 3 Energy cards is 2.41%. Note that, as usual, the highest probability for each row is in boldface.
Comments on the above table
First of all, note that, no matter how many Energy cards you play (well, if you play 8 or more, which most decks do), then you’ll always expect at least one Energy card to be in your Prizes. The probability of getting no Energy cards in your Prize cards is never the highest in any row between 8 and 30. So remember that, under normal circumstances, at least one of your Energy cards is almost always among your Prize cards.
For normal Unlimited decks, that usually play about 11 to 15 Energy cards, you’ll expect just one Energy card to be among your Prizes most of the time. Modified decks, however, usually run more Energy cards, and, as the table above shows, you’ll usually get two of these Energy cards in your Prizes. So, players who play Unlimited should expect one Energy card among their 6 prizes, while Modified players should expect two Energy cards among their 6 prizes.
In particular, note the case when you run 16 Energies and when you run 17 Energies. When you run 16 Energies, the odds are that you’ll get one of them among your Prizes. If you run 17 Energies in your deck, the odds are that you’ll get two of them among your Prizes. That means that, effectively, while playing the game, the remainder of your deck has 15 Energy cards in both cases! Thus you might want to never run 17 Energy cards in your deck because of this problem.
Conclusion
The sixth, and final, article that I have prepared for you next week will
concern card drawing. I will compare Trainer cards that provide card drawing
with each other, and conclude which are good and which are, well, less
good.
After that, I’ll be open to just answer your odds-related questions. I have already received a few, but I think that my articles either have already answered their questions, or else will answer them. As usual, the email address to do this is xactcreations@yahoo.com. You can also AIM me (my nickname is xactxx) if you want to ask me something quickly or if you want to just chat with me about anything, but if you want an odds-related question answered, email is the preferred method.